Thaksin Coming Back?

I did what I really hate to do… I read some of the political commentaries on the situation in Bangkok with Thaksin and the Red Shirts and the Thai Government and Military just a few minutes ago to see what the predictions are for the future of the situation.

I read some of the Bangkok2, BangkokPundit, TheNation, and something else I can’t remember.

Apparently the violence levels reached the other day were higher than the all events for the past 2 decades. Wow. I didn’t realize that. That’s meaningful.

It seems as if there is little for the government to accomplish by keeping PM Abhisit on. The Red Shirt protesters are still making Bangkok their home, and it seems as if they’re in a stronger position now that the military fired on them. Regardless what instigation led to it.

Will Abhisit step down and new elections be held within the next year?

I’m going to repeat my prediction… well, wait, I need to find out what it was first – something about Thaksin coming back and being Prime Minister again before long. I think I said this year – but, maybe now I’ll have to revise and say that he’ll come back and be PM in 2011.

Kind of a humorous moment this morning… my wife was telling me about an interview with Thaksin on Aljazeera network. They were asking him lots of questions he couldn’t answer – they were doing it on purpose, obviously.

One of them was – When will you leave for Thailand? You said before that when the first bullet is fired toward the Red Shirts you would be there fighting alongside them.

Thaksin’s Loss

Everyone by now knows Taksin lost over a billion US Dollars yesterday.

You know, in the big picture it’s not such a big deal. He may make a big deal over it – but he still has a billion dollars left that we know of. He’s a crafty guy… crafty being defined as intelligent + street-smart. Do you really think all the money he has is in the public eye? I don’t.

If I were Thaksin I would probably do this…

Come back to Thailand and face the music. Plead not guilty. Face a year of jail. Someone will let him out early on good behavior. He’ll be back in politics in a very big way in the coming years.

He can still roll with it and come out a winner – a very big winner in 2 years time.

Not that I agree that it’s the best thing for the country… but honestly, I cannot come up with a best-case scenario for a government in Thailand.

Can you?

I don’t forsee anything good – really good, coming out of Thailand for many years… I hope I’m wrong. I wonder what Thailand would be like with an amazing government in place – everyone fighting for the same thing – the good of the NATION.

It’s not happening anytime soon… that’s my guess. I hope I’m way the hell off – but I’m not.

Anybody think Thailand is ready to be the number two economy in Asia after China? Could it be in 5 years? 15?

Bombs in Bangkok, Thailand on New Years Eve…

I’m sitting at home in Southern Thailand and my girlfriend called to tell me that bombs were going off at stores, over police boxes, at the train and bus stations in Bangkok.

Nobody is too surprised, but there are people dead and this will be the cause of a lot of change in the next year or so…

Of BIG interest to me is what the military junta does about it… There are rumors that these are people AGAINST the junta… and of course those that suspect muslim insurgents of finally making their way up to Bangkok to up the ante by a power of 10.

If it’s insurgents it will affect tourism in a big way. If some rogue folk against the military government in charge – probably not that big of an effect.

Yesterday the news in the paper was that 2 teachers were shot dead in their truck in the south and then their bodies pulled out into the street and lit on fire. This kind of thing has been going on almost daily. Monks killed and set on fire. Children killed. Teachers, police, all sorts of government workers have been killed.

If it’s them – the military might do something major.

Curious to see what’s going to happen with tourism. Thailand has around 13 million visitors per year (usually). I think that’s the figure. Correct me if I’m wrong – please.

Bombing train stations, bus stations and places frequented by foreign visitors would probably be the work of the insurgents… that is, unless those against the ruling junta thought they could pull it off and get the insurgents blamed in the South – and make the ruling Junta look bad…

Not at all sure at this point. The bombings in Bangkok might be terrorists for all we know. Perhaps many major cities around the world will see something similar as their New Years celebrations commence. We’re ahead of most of the world here and we’d get it first.

Be safe, don’t travel just yet if you don’t have to!