Poof! Like a Magic Act, All is Back to Normal in Thailand

Notice I didn’t say all sorted? Sorted would be a miracle…this is just a magic poof.

Apparently the reds will accept some version of what was offered – elections in November 2010. That would be cool. Thaksin phoned in to Red Shirt leaders to suggest it’s a good timing for a truce – I read somewhere online. Sorry, I didn’t read the article, just the headline.

It seems like I’m the only one out here on a limb making predictions about Thaksin coming back to run this joint – but, it’s open to everyone to give it a shot you know.

What do you see happening over the next 1 year? 2?

I see this…

Elections are held in November or whenever they’re held – no matter really in my scenario… which takes into account the big picture. It might be another year for elections for all any of us knows for sure. Say there is an election.

Some “Thaksin Friendly” male will be elected. He will appear to run the country for a while, at the same time he is paving the way for Thaksin to return. I really believe Thaksin will return soon. Maybe a year? Maybe 2 at the most. He’ll return and he’ll run this country again. I don’t know the specifics of how it will happen, but, it’s bound to happen.

Just a guess anyway. Anybody else?

Thaksin Coming Back?

I did what I really hate to do… I read some of the political commentaries on the situation in Bangkok with Thaksin and the Red Shirts and the Thai Government and Military just a few minutes ago to see what the predictions are for the future of the situation.

I read some of the Bangkok2, BangkokPundit, TheNation, and something else I can’t remember.

Apparently the violence levels reached the other day were higher than the all events for the past 2 decades. Wow. I didn’t realize that. That’s meaningful.

It seems as if there is little for the government to accomplish by keeping PM Abhisit on. The Red Shirt protesters are still making Bangkok their home, and it seems as if they’re in a stronger position now that the military fired on them. Regardless what instigation led to it.

Will Abhisit step down and new elections be held within the next year?

I’m going to repeat my prediction… well, wait, I need to find out what it was first – something about Thaksin coming back and being Prime Minister again before long. I think I said this year – but, maybe now I’ll have to revise and say that he’ll come back and be PM in 2011.

Kind of a humorous moment this morning… my wife was telling me about an interview with Thaksin on Aljazeera network. They were asking him lots of questions he couldn’t answer – they were doing it on purpose, obviously.

One of them was – When will you leave for Thailand? You said before that when the first bullet is fired toward the Red Shirts you would be there fighting alongside them.

Another Perspective on PAD, PPP

There is so much resentment toward People’s Alliance for Democracy, but I must say I see can see their side. I understand what they’re fighting against. I don’t agree at all with their methods, but, if I were really incensed about something going on in my country where I felt like the whole country was being taken advantage of by those in government – whose to say what I would do?

Here’s an interesting article about a guy – expat maybe, that makes an argument for PAD based on his experience living in Thailand.

While his experiences with PAD show them to be non-violent and non-radical, events of recent days show otherwise. There is a lot of emotion behind their protests, understandably so.

The current government – the People’s Power Party (PPP) – I keep hearing people say, was “Democratically elected”. There is a shade of truth to this as elections were held – but maybe Thailand has never had an election free from corruption. Allegations are that PPP, like Thaksin did years before, bought votes and manipulated polls and polling stations. Allegations are that Thaksin is still pulling the strings of the PPP from abroad. Having Thaksin’s brother in law as the current Prime Minister probably is fueling those accusations just a little. Probably the PPP that exists now is no different in spirit than Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party.

PAD appears to really want a government free from corruption – at least the current brand, and is fighting for an idea that is very strong in their minds and hearts. Their real goal is to remove anyone associated with Thaksin so he can’t affect anything in the country anymore. Thaksin made billions of dollars for himself, family, and friends while Prime Minister… some insist it wasn’t above board. I don’t know one way or the other – neither do you. What we read in the newspapers is of course not 100% truth. Government controls much of what is released through the media, including TV, radio, and newspapers. Still the TRT government watched helplessly as huge allegations of corruption slipped into the media and gradually gained a following as charge after charge was leveled at Thaksin and members of his TRT party.

Before this current crisis I heard many expats that have been living here for many years complaining about Thaksin and how he’s corrupt through to the bone and they couldn’t believe the Thais’ ignored it and went about business as usual. Now – when there is a group fighting against Thaksin and all he stands for – these same expats want airports open and business to be as usual. Expat business ‘owners’ were prospering under Thaksin – but wanted to enjoy their prosperity AND have him ousted as PM. Now – he’s ousted and the country is dying economically.

Can Thailand have good leaders AND economic prosperity at the same time?

Now Thaksin doesn’t seem to have been that bad to many expats – and Thais. Some (most?) are willing to accept Thaksin’s return if he can turn the country around economically – and he probably can. The guy is brilliant in his manipulation of people and cash. Will he return? I’m betting he will. Apparently he has a few BILLIONS of US Dollars on lockdown in Thailand that the courts won’t release. That’s a lot to fight for. I think he’ll give it everything he’s got to return.

Probably today is going to be the day of action by PPP, police if Prime Minister Wongsawat can mobilize them, and maybe the Army will either be called in or step in.

What if Thailand had a government almost free from corruption? What if the government was transparent and all dealings were subject to scrutiny and punishment if found to be self-serving or otherwise corrupt?

You know how far we are away from that today? Wow. Every bit as far as in the 1990’s I think. Is PAD any better? Any less corrupt? The politicians, chiefs of police, generals, business leaders and more that have enjoyed a corrupt Thai society because it gave them freedom to do as they chose is still here. Everyone has their own selfish interests at heart – not really the good of the country or the prosperity of the country as a whole in mind. Those with billions of baht are still in charge. The people are relatively clueless about the level of corruption that goes on. It’s accepted most times – it’s the way Thai society “is”. Usually it’s nothing Thais’ get upset about.

Now PAD is upset about it – is it for reasons of self-interest or the good of the country?

Probably a little of both.

Suvarnabhumi Airport Closed and Bombs Exploding

Apparently 3 or 4 bombs have gone off (conflicting reports) at the airport and there are still 3,000 travelers stranded at the airport, some 7,000 of them being transferred to Don Muang Airport. Numerous reports of grenades being thrown into the crowds of protesters are also being reported.

Australia, Malaysia and Russia are the latest countries to issue travel warnings for Thailand. Singapore Airlines have canceled all flights to TH.

The current Thai PM is said to be in Thailand already by some, and others say he’s arriving this evening by Peru, flying to Chiang Mai, and then back to Bangkok in a military jet where he’ll hold a meeting to declare the state of emergency. He will declare a state of emergency because PAD (People’s Alliance for Democracy) is shutting down the country, as he called it.

When that happens the police and military will be mobilized to take control of government buildings taken over by PAD. Military leaders have continually denied plans for a coup.

I’d say today wouldn’t be a good time to come to Thailand. Arrivals are being taken at Don Muang Airport, after being redirected from Suvarnabhumi. There are no flights leaving Suvarnabhumi as far as I’ve heard this morning.

If you’re still coming to Thailand – and some of you WILL, I know… be prepared for lengthy delays, and possible danger in the streets as the people of Bangkok that oppose all the commotion caused by PAD may begin fighting back. PAD may also step up the drama before the state of emergency is declared.

Meanwhile Thaksin has been “banned” from calling in during this crisis, but vows to return to politics because the people need him to get Thailand back on track! That’s what he said anyway.

Is that what Thailand needs, Thaksin to return to get the country going again?

I think he’d need to worry about someone taking him out as the opposition is furious at him (finally) for corruption displayed on so many levels and his refusal to even acknowledge that he did anything wrong.

What do I think will happen? Hmm. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that in the next few months – Thaksin returns, the economy gets better – a little better, and then nearly everyone overlooks his transgressions in the short-term because the country is doing better economically and he’s playing it pretty straight from now forward. I think he’s had a good scare being in the UK and then being rejected. He’s living in Dubai for god’s sakes. I think when he comes back – and he will, that he’ll be Thailand’s savior… at least in the short-term and at least according to appearances.

Thais don’t have this strong idea that people need to really pay for their transgressions – once they’re known to the public the charges – the implementation of any punishment usually just sort of goes away – unless you’re a drug dealer. So, unless Thaksin brings back a planeload of cocaine I think he’s going to be the leader again and not suffer and real consequences for his past actions at all.

What do you think?

(anonymous comments not published)